Betting odds on President Donald Trump leaving office before the end of his current term have surged on prediction platforms, with traders speculating on outcomes ranging from resignation to removal under the 25th Amendment.
Kalshi and Polymarket have introduced contracts allowing users to bet on whether Trump will remain in office through the end of his term. Recent trading has priced Trump’s chances of leaving the White House before 2026 between 6 percent and 10 percent, with trading volumes climbing into millions of dollars.
On Kalshi, bettors placed Trump’s odds of leaving office before January 20, 2029, at 27 percent. By January 21, those odds had risen to 40 percent. Traders suggested an early exit is more likely later in the term, with 34 percent predicting a departure before 2028 and 18 percent within the current year.
Political context
Calls for Trump’s removal have intensified among Democratic lawmakers. Rep. Yassamin Ansari of Arizona wrote on X, “The president of the United States is extremely mentally ill and it’s putting all of our lives at risk. The 25th Amendment exists for a reason—we need to invoke it immediately.”
The president of the United States is extremely mentally ill and it’s putting all of our lives at risk. The 25th Amendment exists for a reason—we need to invoke it immediately. pic.twitter.com/HaywXdWxDK
— Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari (@RepYassAnsari) January 19, 2026Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove of California posted, saying, “Donald Trump is unfit to lead and clearly out of control. Invoke the 25th Amendment.”
Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts echoed the sentiment in a January statement, “Invoke the 25th Amendment.”
Democratic commentator Harry Sisson also weighed in, writing, “It’s 1 am and Trump is awake posting AI images of him taking over Greenland. This is where we are as a country. 25TH AMENDMENT NOW!!!”
International reactions
Trump’s rhetoric about acquiring Greenland has drawn responses from foreign leaders. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre stated, “Norway’s position on Greenland is clear. Greenland is a part of the Kingdom of Denmark, and Norway fully supports the Kingdom of Denmark on this matter.” He also clarified that the Nobel Peace Prize is awarded by an independent committee, not the Norwegian government.
French President Emmanuel Macron, speaking in Davos, said, “Let’s not accept a global order which will be decided by those who claim to have, I would say, the bigger voice or the bigger stick.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov commented, “Now it’s not the Collective West writing the rules but just one of its representatives. It’s a major upheaval for Europe, and we are watching it.”
Congressional dynamics
Any impeachment effort would require majority support in the House of Representatives. While Democrats have pushed for impeachment, the Republican-controlled Congress has made such efforts difficult. Rep. Don Bacon signaled that some Republicans might support impeachment if Trump attempted to use military force to acquire Greenland, though Trump dismissed speculation about military action.
Control of the House will be determined in the upcoming November elections, and Democrats are hopeful that a majority could allow them to advance impeachment proceedings. Trump has previously faced impeachment efforts, with seven Republican senators voting alongside Democrats in 2021 to convict him on charges related to the January 6 Capitol attack.
As Trump’s Greenland push and foreign policy controversies continue to grow, prediction markets are expected to remain volatile.
